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| Team | 1 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BOS | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tampa Bay Rays
31.4%
Boston Red Sox
68.6%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Fenway Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Tampa Bay Rays Away Starter
W-L
6-2
Season IP
64.2
Season K
75
ERA
4.59
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy DíazBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Jonny DeLucaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Junior CamineroBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Ryan ViladeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Chandler SimpsonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Ben WilliamsonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Victor Mesa Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Nick FortesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Richie PalaciosBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ian SeymourPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patrick SandovalPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
rays 0 - 0 red-sox. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Rays
+218
Underdog
Boston Red Sox
-218
Favorite
Over / Under
7.5
Total Runs Line
3 + 4.4 = 7.4
Expected: Tampa Bay Rays + Boston Red Sox
Run Line (-1.5)
Boston Red Sox -1.5
Expected margin: +1.4 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Boston Red Sox Home Starter
W-L
0-0
Season IP
4.1
Season K
5
ERA
2.08
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony SeiglerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Ceddanne RafaelaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Wilyer AbreuBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Willson ContrerasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Romy GonzalezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Caleb DurbinBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Andruw MonasterioBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Jahmai JonesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Carlos NarváezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - |
Top 1: Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 0-0.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.303
Avg OPS
0.684
Pitching FIP
4.66
Pitching K%
24.75%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Bryan Baker 2.55, Cam Booser 3.38
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Bryan Baker 29.3%, Cam Booser 34.8%
Avg wOBA
0.313
Avg OPS
0.709
Pitching FIP
3.41
Pitching K%
25.30%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Aroldis Chapman 2.29, Garrett Whitlock 2.54
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Aroldis Chapman 30.6%, Garrett Whitlock 29%, Eduardo Rivera 25%