Loading...
Prediction Track Record
Two independent measures of model performance with full transparency.
Record
43–26
Win Rate
62.3%
ROI
-10.4%
Why We Publish This
Most analytics sites show you picks but never show you whether those picks actually won. We think that's a credibility problem. The two sections below solve it from different angles:
- Live Posted Picks — a growing log of every daily pick the model has publicly posted to Bluesky and Reddit before first pitch, along with the actual outcome. Small sample, but independently timestamp-verifiable.
- Walk-Forward Simulation — for every recent completed MLB game, we re-run the model using only season-to-date stats ending the prior day, with probable pitchers as they were listed. No look-ahead. Much larger sample, closest thing to a realtime backtest.
For the model internals (9 factors, Pythagorean + FIP + wOBA + park-adjusted recency, 22% regression to mean) see the methodology page. Everything is reproducible from the scripts committed in our public repository.
Real picks
Live Posted Picks
Every pick the bot has posted since Apr 14, 2026. Independent timestamp on Bluesky and Reddit, so these records are not cherry-picked after the fact.
Each pick is posted before game time and the result is stamped once the final score is available. Payouts are computed at the moneyline we published, not closing line. This is the strictest, most honest accountability metric — but the sample builds slowly (about three picks per slate).
Record
43–26
69 picks
Win Rate
62.3%
vs 50% baseline
ROI at posted ML
-10.4%
Flat $100 unit
Brier Score
0.2424
Lower = better, 0.25 = random
Calibration Curve
Monthly Performance
Cumulative ROI
Full Posted-Pick Log
Jun 8, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers@Athletics |  | 69.6% | -229 | — | — |
| Cincinnati Reds@San Diego Padres |  | 61.3% | -158 | — | — |
| Washington Nationals@San Francisco Giants |  | 60.1% | -151 | — | — |
Jun 4, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants@Milwaukee Brewers | | 80.0% | -400 | 12-9 | L |
| Toronto Blue Jays@Atlanta Braves |  | 74.2% | -287 | 7-2 | L |
| San Diego Padres@Philadelphia Phillies |  | 68.9% | -222 | 4-6 | W |
May 29, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies@Los Angeles Dodgers |  | 72.6% | -265 | 2-4 | W |
| Boston Red Sox@Cleveland Guardians |  | 63.4% | -173 | 3-4 | W |
| New York Yankees@Athletics |  | 62.6% | -167 | 8-2 | W |
May 28, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs@Pittsburgh Pirates |  | 69.9% | -233 | 7-2 | L |
| Atlanta Braves@Boston Red Sox | | 58.8% | -143 | 10-2 | W |
| Minnesota Twins@Chicago White Sox |  | 55.5% | -125 | 2-6 | W |
May 27, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies@Los Angeles Dodgers | | 80.0% | -400 | 1-4 | W |
| Chicago Cubs@Pittsburgh Pirates | | 72.5% | -264 | 10-4 | L |
| St. Louis Cardinals@Milwaukee Brewers | | 72.2% | -260 | 1-2 | W |
May 26, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies@Los Angeles Dodgers | | 80.0% | -400 | 6-15 | W |
| St. Louis Cardinals@Milwaukee Brewers | | 72.1% | -259 | 0-6 | W |
| New York Yankees@Kansas City Royals | | 65.9% | -193 | 15-1 | W |
May 24, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals@Atlanta Braves | | 71.9% | -256 | 2-1 | L |
| Colorado Rockies@Arizona Diamondbacks |  | 70.0% | -233 | 1-9 | W |
| Athletics@San Diego Padres | | 64.9% | -185 | 5-2 | L |
May 23, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals@Atlanta Braves | | 72.2% | -260 | 2-0 | L |
| Colorado Rockies@Arizona Diamondbacks | | 67.0% | -203 | 4-5 | W |
| Chicago White Sox@San Francisco Giants | | 65.2% | -187 | 3-10 | L |
May 21, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies@Arizona Diamondbacks | | 70.5% | -238 | 1-2 | W |
| Toronto Blue Jays@New York Yankees | | 64.7% | -183 | 2-0 | L |
| Atlanta Braves@Miami Marlins | | 63.2% | -172 | 9-3 | W |
May 20, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles@Tampa Bay Rays |  | 71.7% | -254 | 3-5 | W |
| Houston Astros@Minnesota Twins |  | 70.6% | -240 | 1-4 | W |
| Toronto Blue Jays@New York Yankees | | 69.6% | -229 | 2-1 | L |
May 19, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles@Tampa Bay Rays | | 70.3% | -237 | 1-4 | W |
| Houston Astros@Minnesota Twins | | 70.2% | -236 | 2-1 | L |
| Cincinnati Reds@Philadelphia Phillies | | 68.0% | -213 | 4-1 | L |
May 18, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles@Tampa Bay Rays | | 73.8% | -281 | 6-16 | W |
| Cincinnati Reds@Philadelphia Phillies | | 64.1% | -178 | 4-5 | W |
| Houston Astros@Minnesota Twins | | 64.0% | -178 | 3-6 | W |
May 17, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox@Atlanta Braves | | 71.8% | -255 | 1-8 | W |
| Cincinnati Reds@Cleveland Guardians | | 71.3% | -248 | 3-10 | W |
| Baltimore Orioles@Washington Nationals |  | 67.7% | -210 | 7-3 | L |
May 16, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox@Atlanta Braves | | 72.5% | -263 | 3-2 | L |
| Miami Marlins@Tampa Bay Rays | | 70.9% | -244 | 10-5 | L |
| Cincinnati Reds@Cleveland Guardians | | 64.6% | -182 | 4-7 | W |
May 10, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies@Philadelphia Phillies | | 69.1% | -223 | 0-6 | W |
| Pittsburgh Pirates@San Francisco Giants | | 65.1% | -186 | 6-7 | L |
| Los Angeles Angels@Toronto Blue Jays |  | 61.6% | -160 | 6-1 | L |
May 9, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs@Texas Rangers |  | 70.0% | -234 | 0-6 | L |
| Colorado Rockies@Philadelphia Phillies | | 61.9% | -162 | 3-9 | W |
| Pittsburgh Pirates@San Francisco Giants | | 61.5% | -160 | 13-3 | W |
May 3, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles@New York Yankees | | 79.7% | -393 | 3-11 | W |
| Arizona Diamondbacks@Chicago Cubs | | 79.1% | -379 | 4-8 | W |
| San Francisco Giants@Tampa Bay Rays | | 74.6% | -294 | 1-2 | W |
May 2, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks@Chicago Cubs | | 77.4% | -343 | 0-2 | W |
| Baltimore Orioles@New York Yankees | | 75.4% | -307 | 4-9 | W |
| San Francisco Giants@Tampa Bay Rays | | 64.8% | -184 | 1-5 | W |
May 1, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles@New York Yankees | | 75.0% | -300 | 2-7 | W |
| Arizona Diamondbacks@Chicago Cubs | | 71.4% | -249 | 5-6 | W |
| Kansas City Royals@Seattle Mariners |  | 68.7% | -219 | 7-6 | L |
Apr 26, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies@Atlanta Braves | | 80.0% | -400 | 2-6 | W |
| New York Yankees@Houston Astros | | 68.7% | -220 | 4-7 | L |
| Minnesota Twins@Tampa Bay Rays | | 64.4% | -181 | 2-4 | W |
Apr 25, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies@Atlanta Braves | | 80.0% | -400 | 8-5 | L |
| New York Yankees@Houston Astros | | 68.3% | -215 | 8-3 | W |
| Los Angeles Angels@Kansas City Royals |  | 63.1% | -171 | 1-12 | L |
Apr 24, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies@Atlanta Braves | | 80.0% | -400 | 3-5 | W |
| New York Yankees@Houston Astros | | 65.6% | -191 | 12-4 | W |
| Boston Red Sox@Baltimore Orioles |  | 64.7% | -183 | 3-10 | W |
Apr 22, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies@Chicago Cubs | | 80.0% | -400 | 2-7 | W |
| San Diego Padres@Colorado Rockies | | 69.0% | -223 | 3-8 | L |
| Los Angeles Dodgers@San Francisco Giants | | 67.5% | -208 | 0-3 | L |
Apr 14, 2026
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets@Los Angeles Dodgers | | 79.0% | -376 | 1-2 | W |
| Washington Nationals@Pittsburgh Pirates | | 74.7% | -296 | 5-4 | L |
| Toronto Blue Jays@Milwaukee Brewers | | 72.1% | -258 | 9-7 | L |
Simulated
Walk-Forward Simulation
For every completed MLB game in the last 21 days (Apr 1, 2026 → Apr 21, 2026) we re-ran the model using only stats available through the day before first pitch. Generated 4/22/2026.
This section answers: "If the bot had been live since the start of the season and posted the favorite in every game using stats available that morning, how would it have done?" The numbers below are the honest answer. No look-ahead data from future games is used; probable pitchers come from the MLB schedule hydrate snapshot at post time.
Expect walk-forward numbers to be notably worse than retrospective backtests early in the season, because stats like team wOBA, bullpen ERA, and starter FIP are still very noisy with only a handful of games played. As the season matures and samples accumulate, the gap should narrow and calibration should tighten.
Note: Picks here are always on the model's favorite (probability ≥ 50%). This is intentionally a broader net than the top-3-per-slate filter we use for live posts, which explains why the per-game ROI can look rougher than the live section would under the same small-sample conditions. Totals and run-line markets are not included in this simulation.
Record
145–135
280 picks
Win Rate
51.8%
vs 50% baseline
ROI at posted ML
-15.3%
Flat $100 unit
Brier Score
0.2699
Lower = better, 0.25 = random
Calibration Curve
Sample of Recent Simulated Picks (newest first)
| Date | Matchup | Model Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers@San Francisco Giants | | 67.3% | -206 | 1-3 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Chicago White Sox@Arizona Diamondbacks | | 68.2% | -214 | 11-5 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Athletics@Seattle Mariners | | 61.4% | -159 | 5-2 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Toronto Blue Jays@Los Angeles Angels | | 63.7% | -175 | 4-2 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | San Diego Padres@Colorado Rockies | | 67.1% | -204 | 1-0 | W |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates@Texas Rangers | | 55.5% | -125 | 1-5 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Philadelphia Phillies@Chicago Cubs | | 80.0% | -400 | 4-7 | W |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Baltimore Orioles@Kansas City Royals | | 59.5% | -147 | 5-6 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Minnesota Twins@New York Mets | | 63.3% | -172 | 5-3 | W |
| Apr 21, 2026 | New York Yankees@Boston Red Sox | | 52.9% | -112 | 4-0 | W |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Atlanta Braves@Washington Nationals | | 68.2% | -214 | 4-11 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers@Detroit Tigers |  | 66.8% | -201 | 12-4 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals@Miami Marlins |  | 50.2% | -101 | 5-3 | W |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds@Tampa Bay Rays | | 54.8% | -121 | 12-6 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Houston Astros@Cleveland Guardians | | 64.1% | -179 | 5-8 | W |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Athletics@Seattle Mariners | | 64.3% | -180 | 6-4 | L |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Toronto Blue Jays@Los Angeles Angels | | 66.6% | -199 | 5-2 | L |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers@Colorado Rockies | | 67.9% | -211 | 12-3 | W |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Philadelphia Phillies@Chicago Cubs | | 80.0% | -400 | 1-5 | W |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Baltimore Orioles@Kansas City Royals | | 56.2% | -128 | 7-5 | W |
Showing the 20 most recent of 280 simulated picks. Full data is checked into the repository at public/data/walk-forward.json.
Disclaimer. Records and ROI shown above are computed from the public model's posted picks and from an automated walk-forward simulation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is financial advice — please wager responsibly and within your limits. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org를 방문하세요.