Loading...
Loading...
Two independent measures of how well our v2.2 win-probability model is actually doing. Every pick the model has publicly posted is logged below, and every recent completed game is re-scored using only stats that would have been available the prior day — the closest honest simulation of realtime performance we can produce.
Most analytics sites show you picks but never show you whether those picks actually won. We think that's a credibility problem. The two sections below solve it from different angles:
For the model internals (9 factors, Pythagorean + FIP + wOBA + park-adjusted recency, 22% regression to mean) see the methodology page. Everything is reproducible from the scripts committed in our public repository.
Every pick the bot has posted since Apr 14, 2026. Independent timestamp on Bluesky and Reddit, so these records are not cherry-picked after the fact.
Each pick is posted before game time and the result is stamped once the final score is available. Payouts are computed at the moneyline we published, not closing line. This is the strictest, most honest accountability metric — but the sample builds slowly (about three picks per slate).
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies@Atlanta Braves | ABR Atlanta Braves | 80.0% | -400 | 3-5 | W |
| New York Yankees@Houston Astros | NYY New York Yankees | 65.6% | -191 | — | — |
| Boston Red Sox@Baltimore Orioles | BOR Baltimore Orioles | 64.7% | -183 | 3-10 | W |
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies@Chicago Cubs | CCU Chicago Cubs | 80.0% | -400 | 2-7 | W |
| San Diego Padres@Colorado Rockies | SDP San Diego Padres | 69.0% | -223 | 3-8 | L |
| Los Angeles Dodgers@San Francisco Giants | LAD Los Angeles Dodgers | 67.5% | -208 | 0-3 | L |
| Matchup | Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets@Los Angeles Dodgers | LAD Los Angeles Dodgers | 79.0% | -376 | 1-2 | W |
| Washington Nationals@Pittsburgh Pirates | PPI Pittsburgh Pirates | 74.7% | -296 | 5-4 | L |
| Toronto Blue Jays@Milwaukee Brewers | MBR Milwaukee Brewers | 72.1% | -258 | 9-7 | L |
For every completed MLB game in the last 21 days (Apr 1, 2026 → Apr 21, 2026) we re-ran the model using only stats available through the day before first pitch. Generated 4/22/2026.
This section answers: "If the bot had been live since the start of the season and posted the favorite in every game using stats available that morning, how would it have done?" The numbers below are the honest answer. No look-ahead data from future games is used; probable pitchers come from the MLB schedule hydrate snapshot at post time.
Expect walk-forward numbers to be notably worse than retrospective backtests early in the season, because stats like team wOBA, bullpen ERA, and starter FIP are still very noisy with only a handful of games played. As the season matures and samples accumulate, the gap should narrow and calibration should tighten.
| Date | Matchup | Model Pick | WP | ML | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers@San Francisco Giants | LAD Los Angeles Dodgers | 67.3% | -206 | 1-3 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Chicago White Sox@Arizona Diamondbacks | ADI Arizona Diamondbacks | 68.2% | -214 | 11-5 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Athletics@Seattle Mariners | SMA Seattle Mariners | 61.4% | -159 | 5-2 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Toronto Blue Jays@Los Angeles Angels | LAA Los Angeles Angels | 63.7% | -175 | 4-2 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | San Diego Padres@Colorado Rockies | SDP San Diego Padres | 67.1% | -204 | 1-0 | W |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates@Texas Rangers | PPI Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.5% | -125 | 1-5 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Philadelphia Phillies@Chicago Cubs | CCU Chicago Cubs | 80.0% | -400 | 4-7 | W |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Baltimore Orioles@Kansas City Royals | BOR Baltimore Orioles | 59.5% | -147 | 5-6 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Minnesota Twins@New York Mets | MTW Minnesota Twins | 63.3% | -172 | 5-3 | W |
| Apr 21, 2026 | New York Yankees@Boston Red Sox | NYY New York Yankees | 52.9% | -112 | 4-0 | W |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Atlanta Braves@Washington Nationals | ABR Atlanta Braves | 68.2% | -214 | 4-11 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers@Detroit Tigers | DTI Detroit Tigers | 66.8% | -201 | 12-4 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals@Miami Marlins | SLC St. Louis Cardinals | 50.2% | -101 | 5-3 | W |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds@Tampa Bay Rays | TBR Tampa Bay Rays | 54.8% | -121 | 12-6 | L |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Houston Astros@Cleveland Guardians | CGU Cleveland Guardians | 64.1% | -179 | 5-8 | W |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Athletics@Seattle Mariners | SMA Seattle Mariners | 64.3% | -180 | 6-4 | L |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Toronto Blue Jays@Los Angeles Angels | LAA Los Angeles Angels | 66.6% | -199 | 5-2 | L |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers@Colorado Rockies | LAD Los Angeles Dodgers | 67.9% | -211 | 12-3 | W |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Philadelphia Phillies@Chicago Cubs | CCU Chicago Cubs | 80.0% | -400 | 1-5 | W |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Baltimore Orioles@Kansas City Royals | BOR Baltimore Orioles | 56.2% | -128 | 7-5 | W |
Showing the 20 most recent of 280 simulated picks. Full data is checked into the repository at public/data/walk-forward.json.
Disclaimer.Records and ROI shown above are computed from the public model's posted picks and from an automated walk-forward simulation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is financial advice — please wager responsibly and within your limits. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org.