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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Los Angeles Angels
35.8%
Minnesota Twins
64.2%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Target Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Los Angeles Angels Away Starter
W-L
3-2
Season IP
31.0
Season K
24
ERA
7.55
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
angels edged out a 4-3 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Los Angeles Angels
+179
Underdog
Minnesota Twins
-179
Favorite
Over / Under
11.5
Total Runs Line
5.4 + 5.9 = 11.3
Expected: Los Angeles Angels + Minnesota Twins
Run Line (-1.5)
Minnesota Twins -1.5
Expected margin: +0.5 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Minnesota Twins Home Starter
W-L
4-5
Season IP
61.0
Season K
51
ERA
4.43
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Los Angeles Angels squeaked out a narrow win over Minnesota Twins, 4-3. Tension ran high from start to finish in this one-run thriller.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.296
Avg OPS
0.673
Pitching FIP
4.07
Pitching K%
22.40%
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Brent Suter 3.44
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Chase Silseth 27.3%, José Fermin 25.2%
Avg wOBA
0.322
Avg OPS
0.725
Pitching FIP
3.65
Pitching K%
23.92%
▸Power: Kody Clemens 16HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Andrew Morris 2.62, Joe Ryan 2.77
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Joe Ryan 28.4%, Kendry Rojas 25.6%