Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Chicago Cubs's Colin Rea (4-3, 4.83 ERA) against Pittsburgh Pirates's Paul Skenes (6-4, 3.00 ERA).
Pittsburgh Pirates's Paul Skenes posts an solid 3.00 ERA this season, while Colin Rea has been shaky at 4.83. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Colin Rea — FIP 4.45, K% 18.8%, 54.0 IP / Paul Skenes — FIP 2.88, K% 28.0%, 60.0 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Chicago Cubs 30-26 (.536), Pittsburgh Pirates 29-27 (.518).
Recent form: Chicago Cubs on a 1-game win streak, Pittsburgh Pirates on a 1-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Chicago Cubs bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Ben Brown 2.01 ERA, 47K in 44.2IP, Caleb Thielbar 3.09 ERA, 13K in 11.2IP, Colin Rea 4.83 ERA, 44K in 54.0IP.
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brandan Bidois 2.57 ERA, 7K in 7.0IP, Braxton Ashcraft 2.75 ERA, 70K in 68.2IP, Bubba Chandler 4.85 ERA, 52K in 52.0IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Chicago Cubs 41% vs Pittsburgh Pirates 59%
Factors: Pittsburgh Pirates's starter owns the lower ERA, Pittsburgh Pirates's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Colin Rea averages 6.8 IP per start vs. Paul Skenes at 5.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.