Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Cincinnati Reds's Andrew Abbott (5-4, 3.90 ERA) against Pittsburgh Pirates's Paul Skenes (6-7, 2.86 ERA).
Pittsburgh Pirates's Paul Skenes posts an solid 2.86 ERA this season, while Andrew Abbott has been league-average at 3.90. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Andrew Abbott — FIP 5.04, K% 17.9%, 90.0 IP / Paul Skenes — FIP 2.82, K% 30.6%, 88.0 IP
Career H2H Analysis
Andrew Abbott has allowed high batting averages to several Pittsburgh Pirates hitters: Brandon Lowe (2/5, .400), Bryan Reynolds (5/13, .385), Marcell Ozuna (3/8, .375). These matchups bear watching.
On the flip side, Ryan O'Hearn has been overmatched by Andrew Abbott, going just 0-for-5 (.000) in their career matchup.
Andrew Abbott carries a .297 career BAA (11-for-37) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates's top of the order — a neutral track record.
On the flip side, Eugenio Suárez (1/8), Sal Stewart (0/7), Noelvi Marte (0/7) have all been largely shut down by Paul Skenes in their careers.
Paul Skenes owns a .179 career batting average against (10-for-56) vs. Cincinnati Reds's top of the order — a strong sign for a quality outing.
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Cincinnati Reds 39-43 (.476), Pittsburgh Pirates 42-42 (.500).
Run differential: Cincinnati Reds -51, Pittsburgh Pirates +28. Both clubs are evenly matched in run production.
Recent form: Cincinnati Reds on a 1-game losing streak, Pittsburgh Pirates on a 1-game win streak.
Based on starting pitching, Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Cincinnati Reds bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Abbott 3.90 ERA, 70K in 90.0IP, Brady Singer 5.12 ERA, 65K in 77.1IP, Brock Burke (Setup) 2.72 ERA, 35K in 39.2IP.
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brandan Bidois 4.80 ERA, 18K in 15.0IP, Braxton Ashcraft 3.07 ERA, 107K in 96.2IP, Bubba Chandler 4.42 ERA, 73K in 79.1IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Cincinnati Reds 45% vs Pittsburgh Pirates 55%
Factors: Pittsburgh Pirates's starter owns the lower ERA, Pittsburgh Pirates's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Andrew Abbott averages 5.3 IP per start vs. Paul Skenes at 5.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Andrew Abbott has allowed 15 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.