Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Chicago Cubs's Shota Imanaga (6-8, 3.91 ERA) against Pittsburgh Pirates's Paul Skenes (9-8, 3.43 ERA).
Both starters carry similar ERAs, setting the stage for a potential pitchers' duel. WHIP: Shota Imanaga 1.11, Paul Skenes 1.04.
Advanced metrics: Shota Imanaga — FIP 4.50, K% 23.5%, 115.0 IP / Paul Skenes — FIP 2.81, K% 29.7%, 115.3 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Chicago Cubs 58-45 (.563), Pittsburgh Pirates 53-51 (.510).
Chicago Cubs holds the edge in the season standings, though Pittsburgh Pirates can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Run differential: Chicago Cubs +66, Pittsburgh Pirates +50. Chicago Cubs boasts superior run production.
Recent form: Chicago Cubs on a 1-game win streak, Pittsburgh Pirates on a 2-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Chicago Cubs bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Civale 5.49 ERA, 60K in 77.0IP, Caleb Thielbar (Setup) 4.06 ERA, 40K in 31.0IP, Colin Rea 4.85 ERA, 81K in 105.2IP.
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brandon Eisert 6.68 ERA, 36K in 31.0IP, Braxton Ashcraft 3.95 ERA, 130K in 116.1IP, Bubba Chandler 4.47 ERA, 90K in 100.2IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Chicago Cubs 47% vs Pittsburgh Pirates 53%
Factors: Pittsburgh Pirates's starter owns the lower ERA, Pittsburgh Pirates's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Shota Imanaga averages 5.8 IP per start vs. Paul Skenes at 5.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Shota Imanaga has allowed 22 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.