St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates - Game Analysis | StatScope
Away
St. Louis Cardinals
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VS
Home
Pittsburgh Pirates
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FinalInning 9
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STL
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PIT
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Win Probability
High confidence
St. Louis Cardinals
32.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates
67.3%
77-85Record82-80
48.2%Expected Win%51.7%
-29Run Diff+28
3.66Starter ERA3.82
3.59Starter FIP3.33
How to Read This St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Analysis
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of PNC Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Luke Weaver (pirates) entered with 2 runners on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
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High-Leverage Entry
Gordon Graceffo (cardinals) entered with 1 runner on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
StatScope Analysis|Post-Game Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates edges St. Louis Cardinals 2-1
Game Summary
Pittsburgh Pirates squeaked out a narrow win over St. Louis Cardinals, 2-1. Tension ran high from start to finish in this one-run thriller.
A classic pitchers' duel: 21 combined strikeouts between the two staffs.
Key Players
Alec Burleson led St. Louis Cardinals's offense, going 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI. St. Louis Cardinals reliever Cooper Hjerpe threw 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K and anchored the pitching staff.
Brandon Lowe led Pittsburgh Pirates's offense, going 1-for-3, 1 RBI. Pittsburgh Pirates reliever Mason Montgomery threw 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K and recorded the save.
Pitching Report
St. Louis Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 K, 0 BB (37 pitches). Failed to complete five innings, leaving extra burden on the bullpen. The bullpen (4 pitchers) was scoreless over 6.0 IP with 5 K — a flawless relief effort.
Pittsburgh Pirates starter Paul Skenes: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 2 BB (96 pitches). Quality start. K/IP of 1.26 reflects dominant strikeout stuff. The bullpen (4 pitchers) was scoreless over 2.7 IP with 5 K — a flawless relief effort.
Hitting Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals: 5 H, 1 RBI (team AVG 0.172). Includes 1 HR.
Multi-hit games: JJ Wetherholt (2-for-4).
Cleanup cold: Jordan Walker (0-for-3), Leo Bernal (0-for-4). The silence from the heart of the order proved costly.