Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Pittsburgh Pirates's Carmen Mlodzinski (3-3, 4.40 ERA) against St. Louis Cardinals's Michael McGreevy (3-2, 2.10 ERA).
St. Louis Cardinals's Michael McGreevy posts an elite 2.10 ERA this season, while Carmen Mlodzinski has been league-average at 4.40. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Carmen Mlodzinski — FIP 2.97, K% 21.8%, 45.0 IP / Michael McGreevy — FIP 3.86, K% 18.8%, 51.3 IP
Career H2H Analysis
Carmen Mlodzinski has struggled against St. Louis Cardinals's No. 6 hitter Masyn Winn, allowing a .333 career average (2-for-6).
On the flip side, Alec Burleson (1/9), Nolan Gorman (0/6) have all been largely shut down by Carmen Mlodzinski in their careers.
Carmen Mlodzinski owns a .185 career batting average against (5-for-27) vs. St. Louis Cardinals's top of the order — a strong sign for a quality outing.
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Pittsburgh Pirates 24-24 (.500), St. Louis Cardinals 28-19 (.596).
St. Louis Cardinals holds the edge in the season standings, though Pittsburgh Pirates can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Recent form: Pittsburgh Pirates on a 4-game losing streak, St. Louis Cardinals on a 1-game win streak.
Based on starting pitching, St. Louis Cardinals holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Braxton Ashcraft 3.09 ERA, 56K in 55.1IP, Bubba Chandler 5.14 ERA, 36K in 42.0IP.
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andre Pallante 4.04 ERA, 40K in 49.0IP, Dustin May 4.81 ERA, 35K in 48.2IP, George Soriano (Setup) 3.48 ERA, 17K in 20.2IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 40% vs St. Louis Cardinals 60%
Factors: St. Louis Cardinals's starter owns the lower ERA, St. Louis Cardinals's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Carmen Mlodzinski averages 6.4 IP per start vs. Michael McGreevy at 5.7 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.