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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
New York Mets
36.2%
Tampa Bay Rays
63.8%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Tropicana Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
New York Mets Away Starter
W-L
1-3
Season IP
26.0
Season K
25
ERA
5.88
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
mets edged out a 3-2 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
New York Mets
+176
Underdog
Tampa Bay Rays
-176
Favorite
Over / Under
8
Total Runs Line
3.7 + 4.4 = 8.1
Expected: New York Mets + Tampa Bay Rays
Run Line (-1.5)
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
Expected margin: +0.7 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Rays Home Starter
W-L
9-6
Season IP
113.1
Season K
138
ERA
4.21
Season Record
No lineup information available.
New York Mets squeaked out a narrow win over Tampa Bay Rays, 3-2. Tension ran high from start to finish in this one-run thriller.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.284
Avg OPS
0.639
Pitching FIP
3.98
Pitching K%
24.70%
▸Power: Carson Benge 16HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Daniel Duarte 2.98
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Daniel Duarte 26.9%, Christian Scott 27.4%, Austin Warren 25.7%
Avg wOBA
0.321
Avg OPS
0.736
Pitching FIP
3.17
Pitching K%
26.00%
▸Power: Junior Caminero 37HR, Jonathan Aranda 17HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Bryan Baker 2.9, Drew Rasmussen 2.92, Cam Booser 3.32
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Bryan Baker 28.6%, Drew Rasmussen 26%, Cam Booser 31.4%