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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
48.1%
Toronto Blue Jays
51.9%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Rogers Centre, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Pittsburgh Pirates Away Starter
IP
5.0
K
2
ER
1
H
7
BB
1
Pitches
90
W-L
6-3
Season IP
60.0
Season K
65
ERA
2.55
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick GonzalesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Konnor GriffinBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Bryan ReynoldsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 3 | 2 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Marcell OzunaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 3 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Spencer HorwitzBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 3 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Jhostynxon GarciaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Jared TrioloBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Esmerlyn ValdezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Henry DavisBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Paul SkenesPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 5.0 | 90 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patrick CorbinPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 6.0 | 84 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
George Springer (blue-jays) went 2-for-3 (incl. 1 HR) with 1 RBI.
Patrick Corbin pitched 6.0 IP on 84 pitches, 7 K, 1 ER — a quality start.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
+108
Underdog
Toronto Blue Jays
-108
Favorite
Over / Under
8.5
Total Runs Line
5.1 + 3.5 = 8.6
Expected: Pittsburgh Pirates + Toronto Blue Jays
Run Line (-1.5)
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
Expected margin: -1.6 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Toronto Blue Jays Home Starter
IP
6.0
K
7
ER
1
H
5
BB
0
Pitches
84
W-L
1-1
Season IP
44.1
Season K
32
ERA
3.86
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George SpringerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Daulton VarshoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 3 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Yohendrick PiñangoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 3 | 2 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Jesús SánchezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Ernie ClementBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Andrés GiménezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Lenyn SosaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Tyler HeinemanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 0 | - | - |
Bot 6: Pittsburgh Pirates and Toronto Blue Jays are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 1-1.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.331
Avg OPS
0.741
Pitching FIP
4.90
Pitching K%
22.00%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Carmen Mlodzinski 3, Braxton Ashcraft 3.18
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Braxton Ashcraft 26.4%
Avg wOBA
0.303
Avg OPS
0.680
Pitching FIP
2.28
Pitching K%
29.60%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Adam Macko 1.1, Dylan Cease 2.32, Braydon Fisher 3.43
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Adam Macko 27.3%, Dylan Cease 35.1%, Braydon Fisher 26.4%