Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers - Game Analysis | StatScope
Away
Atlanta Braves
3
VS
Home
Los Angeles Dodgers
2
FinalInning 9
Team
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
R
H
E
ATL
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
3
6
0
LAD
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
6
0
Win Probability
Medium confidence
Atlanta Braves
31.3%
Los Angeles Dodgers
68.7%
94-68Record100-62
57.7%Expected Win%62.9%
+116Run Diff+201
1.47Starter ERA1.90
3.97Starter FIP1.72
How to Read This Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Analysis
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Brock Stewart (dodgers) entered with 2 runners on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
⚠
High-Leverage Entry
Evan Phillips (dodgers) entered with 1 runner on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
⚠
High-Leverage Entry
Grant Holmes (braves) entered with 2 runners on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
⚠
High-Leverage Entry
Dylan Lee (braves) entered with 2 runners on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
⚠
High-Leverage Entry
Robert Suarez (braves) entered with 2 runners on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
StatScope Analysis|Post-Game Analysis
Atlanta Braves edges Los Angeles Dodgers 3-2
Game Summary
Atlanta Braves squeaked out a narrow win over Los Angeles Dodgers, 3-2. Tension ran high from start to finish in this one-run thriller.
Key Players
Michael Harris II led Atlanta Braves's offense, going 3-for-5, 1 RBI. Atlanta Braves starter Ray Kerr threw 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K and anchored the pitching staff.
Freddie Freeman led Los Angeles Dodgers's offense, going 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI. Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Edwin Díaz threw 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K and anchored the pitching staff.
Pitching Report
Atlanta Braves starter Ray Kerr: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 K, 1 BB (42 pitches). Failed to complete five innings, leaving extra burden on the bullpen. Bullpen: 6.3 IP, 2 ER, 5 K (ERA 2.84).
Los Angeles Dodgers starter Blake Snell: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 5 BB (90 pitches). Failed to complete five innings, leaving extra burden on the bullpen. Bullpen: 5.3 IP, 2 ER, 5 K (ERA 3.38).