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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| ARI | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | 3 | 7 | 0 |
San Francisco Giants
38.4%
Arizona Diamondbacks
61.6%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Chase Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
San Francisco Giants Away Starter
IP
4.0
K
6
ER
3
H
7
BB
0
Pitches
72
W-L
1-5
Season IP
50.2
Season K
54
ERA
5.68
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will BrennanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Luis ArraezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 3 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Casey SchmittBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 4 | Rafael DeversBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 3 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Willy AdamesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Matt ChapmanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 2 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Bryce EldridgeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 8 | Daniel SusacBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Drew GilbertBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 1 | - | 1 |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler MahlePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 4.0 | 72 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Merrill KellyPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 5.0 | 71 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
Ketel Marte (diamondbacks) went 3-for-3 (incl. 1 HR) with 2 RBI.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
San Francisco Giants
+160
Underdog
Arizona Diamondbacks
-160
Favorite
Over / Under
10
Total Runs Line
4.9 + 5.2 = 10.1
Expected: San Francisco Giants + Arizona Diamondbacks
Run Line (-1.5)
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
Expected margin: +0.3 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks Home Starter
IP
5.0
K
3
ER
3
H
8
BB
0
Pitches
71
W-L
3-3
Season IP
40.0
Season K
26
ERA
5.85
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketel MarteBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| 2 | Ildemaro VargasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Geraldo PerdomoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 4 | Adrian Del CastilloBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Jose FernandezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Jorge BarrosaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Tim TawaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Ryan WaldschmidtBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 2 | - | - |
Bot 5: San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 3-3.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.316
Avg OPS
0.734
Pitching FIP
4.21
Pitching K%
21.77%
▸wOBA .350+: 3 players — elite offense
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Erik Miller 2.86
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Erik Miller 32.1%, Caleb Kilian 25%
Avg wOBA
0.331
Avg OPS
0.760
Pitching FIP
3.48
Pitching K%
20.02%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Brandyn Garcia 1.9, Jonathan Loáisiga 3.15
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Brandyn Garcia 28%