Today's starting pitching matchup features Los Angeles Dodgers's Justin Wrobleski (7-2, 2.87 ERA) against Arizona Diamondbacks's Ryne Nelson (2-4, 4.82 ERA).

Los Angeles Dodgers's Justin Wrobleski posts an solid 2.87 ERA this season, while Ryne Nelson has been shaky at 4.82. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Justin Wrobleski — FIP 3.42, K% 16.0%, 62.7 IP / Ryne Nelson — FIP 5.46, K% 18.7%, 65.3 IP

2026 season record: Los Angeles Dodgers 40-22 (.645), Arizona Diamondbacks 32-29 (.525).

Los Angeles Dodgers holds the edge in the season standings, though Arizona Diamondbacks can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Run differential: Los Angeles Dodgers +134, Arizona Diamondbacks +3. Los Angeles Dodgers boasts superior run production.

Recent form: Los Angeles Dodgers on a 2-game win streak, Arizona Diamondbacks on a 2-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Los Angeles Dodgers holds the edge.

Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Alex Vesia (Setup) 2.21 ERA, 28K in 20.1IP, Blake Treinen (Setup) 3.00 ERA, 18K in 18.0IP, Edgardo Henriquez 3.27 ERA, 19K in 22.0IP.

Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brandon Pfaadt 5.92 ERA, 31K in 38.0IP, Brandyn Garcia (Setup) 0.75 ERA, 11K in 12.0IP, Eduardo Rodriguez 2.24 ERA, 52K in 72.1IP.

Projected win probability: Los Angeles Dodgers 56% vs Arizona Diamondbacks 44%

Factors: Los Angeles Dodgers's starter owns the lower ERA, Arizona Diamondbacks's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Justin Wrobleski averages 7.0 IP per start vs. Ryne Nelson at 5.4 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Ryne Nelson has allowed 15 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.