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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| ARI | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | 4 | 6 | 0 |
St. Louis Cardinals
46.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks
53.9%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Chase Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
St. Louis Cardinals Away Starter
IP
3.0
K
4
ER
4
H
6
BB
3
Pitches
53
W-L
5-6
Season IP
93.0
Season K
89
ERA
4.55
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ WetherholtBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Iván HerreraBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Alec BurlesonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Jordan WalkerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Lars NootbaarBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Masyn WinnBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Nathan ChurchBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | José FermínBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Pedro PagésBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dustin MayPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 3.0 | 53 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brandon PfaadtPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 3.0 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
Gabriel Moreno (diamondbacks) went 2-for-2 with 0 RBI.
Dustin May was pulled after just 3.0 IP with 4 ER, putting pressure on the bullpen.
diamondbacks (6 H) significantly out-hit cardinals (1 H).
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
+117
Underdog
Arizona Diamondbacks
-117
Favorite
Over / Under
9.5
Total Runs Line
5.2 + 4.1 = 9.3
Expected: St. Louis Cardinals + Arizona Diamondbacks
Run Line (-1.5)
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
Expected margin: -1.1 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks Home Starter
IP
3.0
K
2
ER
0
H
1
BB
0
Pitches
34
W-L
3-1
Season IP
56.2
Season K
43
ERA
4.45
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketel MarteBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Geraldo PerdomoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Corbin CarrollBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Gabriel MorenoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 2 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Max KeplerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Nolan ArenadoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 2 | - | 2 | |||||||
| 7 | Tim TawaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | James McCannBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 9 | Ryan WaldschmidtBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Top 4: Arizona Diamondbacks leads 4-0. St. Louis Cardinals needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.309
Avg OPS
0.701
Pitching FIP
3.95
Pitching K%
18.63%
▸Power: Alec Burleson 15HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Dustin May 3.27
Avg wOBA
0.311
Avg OPS
0.708
Pitching FIP
3.62
Pitching K%
20.57%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Brandyn Garcia 1.96
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Brandyn Garcia 30.7%