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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
Philadelphia Phillies
51.2%
Arizona Diamondbacks
48.8%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Chase Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Philadelphia Phillies Away Starter
W-L
6-10
Season IP
148.0
Season K
157
ERA
4.93
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
phillies edged out a 2-1 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
-105
Favorite
Arizona Diamondbacks
+105
Underdog
Over / Under
10
Total Runs Line
5.1 + 5.1 = 10.2
Expected: Philadelphia Phillies + Arizona Diamondbacks
Run Line (-1.5)
Even -1.5
Expected margin: 0 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks Home Starter
W-L
7-2
Season IP
111.0
Season K
73
ERA
3.49
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Philadelphia Phillies squeaked out a narrow win over Arizona Diamondbacks, 2-1. Tension ran high from start to finish in this one-run thriller.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.337
Avg OPS
0.777
Pitching FIP
3.93
Pitching K%
23.32%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Bryce Harper 27HR, Brandon Marsh 17HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Alex McFarlane 2.62, Brooks Raley 3.37
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Alex McFarlane 25%
Avg wOBA
0.338
Avg OPS
0.771
Pitching FIP
4.03
Pitching K%
22.33%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Corbin Carroll 19HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Brandyn Garcia 2.53
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Brandyn Garcia 30.9%