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| Team | 1 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ARI | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Philadelphia Phillies
50.2%
Arizona Diamondbacks
49.8%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Chase Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Philadelphia Phillies Away Starter
W-L
3-8
Season IP
98.1
Season K
85
ERA
5.95
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle SchwarberBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Trea TurnerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Bryce HarperBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Luis ArraezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Bryson StottBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Brandon MarshBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Justin CrawfordBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | J.T. RealmutoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Bryan De La CruzBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Andrew PainterPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Taylor ClarkePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
phillies 0 - 0 diamondbacks. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
-101
Favorite
Arizona Diamondbacks
+101
Underdog
Over / Under
10
Total Runs Line
4.9 + 5.3 = 10.2
Expected: Philadelphia Phillies + Arizona Diamondbacks
Run Line (-1.5)
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
Expected margin: +0.4 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks Home Starter
W-L
2-3
Season IP
62.1
Season K
37
ERA
2.60
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lars NootbaarBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Corbin CarrollBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Gabriel MorenoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Geraldo PerdomoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Nolan ArenadoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Tim TawaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | James McCannBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Ildemaro VargasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Jordan LawlarBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - |
Top 1: Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 0-0.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.338
Avg OPS
0.778
Pitching FIP
3.93
Pitching K%
23.32%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Bryce Harper 27HR, Brandon Marsh 17HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Alex McFarlane 2.62, Brooks Raley 3.37
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Alex McFarlane 25%
Avg wOBA
0.341
Avg OPS
0.778
Pitching FIP
4.03
Pitching K%
22.33%
▸wOBA .350+: 3 players — elite offense
▸Power: Corbin Carroll 19HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Brandyn Garcia 2.53
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Brandyn Garcia 30.9%