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| Team | 1 | 2 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| ATL | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Washington Nationals
30.4%
Atlanta Braves
69.6%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Truist Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Washington Nationals Away Starter
IP
1.0
K
2
ER
0
H
0
BB
1
Pitches
23
W-L
1-4
Season IP
47.2
Season K
53
ERA
5.66
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James WoodBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Luis García Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | José TenaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | CJ AbramsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Dylan CrewsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Daylen LileBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Nasim NuñezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Jorbit VivasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Keibert RuizBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jake IrvinPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.0 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grant HolmesPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.0 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
nationals 0 - 0 braves. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Washington Nationals
+229
Underdog
Atlanta Braves
-229
Favorite
Over / Under
11.5
Total Runs Line
5.3 + 6 = 11.3
Expected: Washington Nationals + Atlanta Braves
Run Line (-1.5)
Atlanta Braves -1.5
Expected margin: +0.7 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Atlanta Braves Home Starter
IP
2.0
K
5
ER
0
H
1
BB
0
Pitches
34
W-L
3-1
Season IP
49.1
Season K
43
ERA
3.65
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronald Acuña Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Michael Harris IIBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Matt OlsonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Ozzie AlbiesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Dominic SmithBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Austin RileyBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Mauricio DubónBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Mike YastrzemskiBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Chadwick TrompBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - |
Bot 2: Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 0-0.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.303
Avg OPS
0.674
Pitching FIP
3.69
Pitching K%
25.98%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Andrew Alvarez 2.13, Cade Cavalli 3.17
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Andrew Alvarez 34.9%, Cade Cavalli 25.1%
Avg wOBA
0.301
Avg OPS
0.682
Pitching FIP
3.01
Pitching K%
26.90%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Didier Fuentes 2.79, Chris Sale 2.95, Bryce Elder 3.3
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Didier Fuentes 28.8%, Chris Sale 29.9%