StatScope Analysis|Live GameLIVE
San Francisco Giants 3 - 2 Atlanta Braves (Bot 4th)
Live Game
Bot 4: San Francisco Giants leads 3-2. Atlanta Braves needs to mount a rally.
Game in progress — data updates in real time.StatScope AI Engine
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| ATL | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 3 | 0 |
San Francisco Giants
34%
Atlanta Braves
66%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Truist Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
San Francisco Giants Away Starter
IP
1.0
K
2
ER
2
H
3
BB
1
Pitches
29
W-L
2-6
Season IP
66.0
Season K
48
ERA
5.73
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luis ArraezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 3 | 2 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Bryce EldridgeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 3 | Matt ChapmanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 4 | Rafael DeversBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Jung Hoo LeeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 6 | Willy AdamesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Casey SchmittBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Drew GilbertBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Daniel SusacBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adrian HouserPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.0 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | |||||||
Robbie RayPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.1 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grant HolmesPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.0 | 55 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | - | |||||||
James KarinchakPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |||||||
Dylan DoddPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
giants edged out a 3-2 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
Luis Arraez (giants) went 2-for-3 with 0 RBI.
2 relievers used, 2.0 IP total, 0 runs allowed.
1 relievers used, 2.1 IP total, 0 runs allowed.
Both teams' bullpen ERA was identical at 0.00.
Robbie Ray (giants) — 2.1 IP, 0 runs, 2 K. The most reliable arm out of the bullpen.
Robbie Ray(2.1 IP, scoreless)
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
San Francisco Giants
+194
Underdog
Atlanta Braves
-194
Favorite
Over / Under
11
Total Runs Line
4.6 + 6.3 = 10.9
Expected: San Francisco Giants + Atlanta Braves
Run Line (-1.5)
Atlanta Braves -1.5
Expected margin: +1.7 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Atlanta Braves Home Starter
IP
2.0
K
2
ER
3
H
4
BB
3
Pitches
55
W-L
4-2
Season IP
68.2
Season K
61
ERA
4.33
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake BaldwinBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Eli WhiteBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Matt OlsonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Ozzie AlbiesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Dominic SmithBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Mauricio DubónBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 7 | Austin RileyBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Mike YastrzemskiBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Ha-Seong KimBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Bot 4: San Francisco Giants leads 3-2. Atlanta Braves needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.342
Avg OPS
0.790
Pitching FIP
4.01
Pitching K%
26.05%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Casey Schmitt 15HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Dylan Smith 1.9
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Dylan Smith 31.6%, Caleb Kilian 27.5%, Erik Miller 29.3%
Avg wOBA
0.301
Avg OPS
0.683
Pitching FIP
2.93
Pitching K%
23.65%
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Didier Fuentes 2.39, Anthony Molina 2.77, Chris Sale 2.82
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Didier Fuentes 29.2%, Chris Sale 28.8%