StatScope Analysis|Live GameLIVE
Texas Rangers 3 - 4 Atlanta Braves (Top 3rd)
Live Game
Top 3: Atlanta Braves leads 4-3. Texas Rangers needs to mount a rally.
Game in progress — data updates in real time.StatScope AI Engine
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| ATL | 0 | 4 | - | 4 | 5 | 1 |
Texas Rangers
39.5%
Atlanta Braves
60.5%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Truist Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Texas Rangers Away Starter
IP
2.0
K
2
ER
4
H
5
BB
1
Pitches
43
W-L
5-8
Season IP
107.0
Season K
117
ERA
4.88
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joc PedersonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Wyatt LangfordBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 3 | Josh JungBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Brandon NimmoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Jake BurgerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Ezequiel DuranBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Evan CarterBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Nicky LopezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Kyle HigashiokaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MacKenzie GorePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.0 | 43 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Owen MurphyPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.1 | 43 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
braves edged out a 4-3 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
Joc Pederson (rangers) went 2-for-2 (incl. 1 HR) with 1 RBI.
MacKenzie Gore was pulled after just 2.0 IP with 4 ER, putting pressure on the bullpen.
braves scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 2nd, seizing momentum.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Texas Rangers
+153
Underdog
Atlanta Braves
-153
Favorite
Over / Under
9.5
Total Runs Line
4.6 + 4.7 = 9.3
Expected: Texas Rangers + Atlanta Braves
Run Line (-1.5)
Even -1.5
Expected margin: +0.1 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Atlanta Braves Home Starter
IP
2.1
K
1
ER
2
H
4
BB
2
Pitches
43
W-L
0-1
Season IP
6.0
Season K
5
ERA
3.00
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake BaldwinBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 2 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Ozzie AlbiesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 3 | Matt OlsonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Michael Harris IIBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Mauricio DubónBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Eli WhiteBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| 7 | Austin RileyBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Joey BartBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Jim JarvisBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Top 3: Atlanta Braves leads 4-3. Texas Rangers needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.311
Avg OPS
0.703
Pitching FIP
4.13
Pitching K%
21.00%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Jacob Latz 2.65
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Jacob Latz 28.2%
Avg wOBA
0.320
Avg OPS
0.731
Pitching FIP
3.97
Pitching K%
25.10%
▸Power: Drake Baldwin 16HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Didier Fuentes 2.22, Chris Sale 2.72
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Didier Fuentes 28.2%, Chris Sale 28.9%