Today's starting pitching matchup features Boston Red Sox's Garrett Crochet (2-3, 7.88 ERA) against Baltimore Orioles's Trevor Rogers (2-2, 4.08 ERA).

Baltimore Orioles's Trevor Rogers posts an league-average 4.08 ERA this season, while Garrett Crochet has been struggling at 7.88. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Garrett Crochet — FIP 4.93, K% 25.9%, 24.0 IP / Trevor Rogers — FIP 3.66, K% 20.5%, 28.7 IP

2026 season record: Boston Red Sox 9-17 (.346), Baltimore Orioles 13-13 (.500).

Baltimore Orioles holds the edge in the season standings, though Boston Red Sox can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Recent form: Boston Red Sox on a 4-game losing streak, Baltimore Orioles on a 2-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Baltimore Orioles holds the edge.

Boston Red Sox bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aroldis Chapman 1.17 ERA, 8 K in 7.2 IP, Brayan Bello 9.00 ERA, 15 K in 22.0 IP, Connelly Early 2.88 ERA, 24 K in 25.0 IP.

Baltimore Orioles bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Albert Suárez 5.00 ERA, 4 K in 9.0 IP, Anthony Nunez 1.46 ERA, 15 K in 12.1 IP.

Projected win probability: Boston Red Sox 25% vs Baltimore Orioles 75%

Factors: Baltimore Orioles's starter owns the lower ERA, Baltimore Orioles's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Garrett Crochet averages 4.8 IP per start vs. Trevor Rogers at 5.7 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.