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Detroit Tigers
43.5%
Baltimore Orioles
56.5%
StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
+130
Underdog
Baltimore Orioles
-130
Favorite
Over / Under
10
Total Runs Line
5.2 + 4.6 = 9.8
Expected: Detroit Tigers + Baltimore Orioles
Run Line (-1.5)
Detroit Tigers -1.5
Expected margin: -0.6 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Detroit Tigers Away Starter
W-L
2-3
Season IP
55.0
Season K
45
ERA
4.58
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
tigers 0 - 0 orioles. A standard game between both teams.
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Baltimore Orioles Home Starter
W-L
3-1
Season IP
29.2
Season K
22
ERA
4.25
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles finished deadlocked at 0-0. Neither side could land the decisive blow in a tightly contested affair.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.273
Avg OPS
0.620
Pitching FIP
3.54
Pitching K%
19.18%
▸High K% (28%+): 4 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Casey Mize 2.55
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Casey Mize 25.1%
Avg wOBA
0.289
Avg OPS
0.652
Pitching FIP
5.18
Pitching K%
19.15%
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Anthony Nunez 28%