StatScope Analysis|Post-Game Analysis
Baltimore Orioles tops Washington Nationals 3-1
Game Summary
Baltimore Orioles defeated Washington Nationals 3-1.
This article was auto-generated from box score data.StatScope AI Engine
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Washington Nationals
49.7%
Baltimore Orioles
50.3%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Washington Nationals Away Starter
W-L
1-1
Season IP
36.2
Season K
42
ERA
3.44
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
nationals 1 - 3 orioles. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Washington Nationals
+101
Underdog
Baltimore Orioles
-101
Favorite
Over / Under
10
Total Runs Line
5.6 + 4.2 = 9.8
Expected: Washington Nationals + Baltimore Orioles
Run Line (-1.5)
Washington Nationals -1.5
Expected margin: -1.4 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Baltimore Orioles Home Starter
W-L
5-7
Season IP
79.1
Season K
61
ERA
4.99
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Baltimore Orioles defeated Washington Nationals 3-1.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.303
Avg OPS
0.678
Pitching FIP
3.10
Pitching K%
24.50%
▸Power: CJ Abrams 17HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Carson Palmquist 2.2, Andrew Alvarez 2.75
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Carson Palmquist 25%, Andrew Alvarez 26.8%
Avg wOBA
0.302
Avg OPS
0.689
Pitching FIP
3.90
Pitching K%
20.55%
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Grant Wolfram 1.54
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Grant Wolfram 26.4%