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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAL | 0 | 1 | - | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Kansas City Royals
39.9%
Baltimore Orioles
60.1%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Kansas City Royals Away Starter
IP
2.0
K
2
ER
1
H
2
BB
0
Pitches
23
W-L
5-6
Season IP
88.2
Season K
82
ERA
4.77
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carter JensenBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Bobby Witt Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Jac CaglianoneBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Lane ThomasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Vinnie PasquantinoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Salvador PerezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Michael MasseyBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Nick LoftinBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Isaac CollinsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noah CameronPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.0 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle BradishPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.2 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
orioles edged out a 1-0 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Kansas City Royals
+151
Underdog
Baltimore Orioles
-151
Favorite
Over / Under
9.5
Total Runs Line
4.6 + 5 = 9.6
Expected: Kansas City Royals + Baltimore Orioles
Run Line (-1.5)
Baltimore Orioles -1.5
Expected margin: +0.4 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Baltimore Orioles Home Starter
IP
2.2
K
3
ER
0
H
0
BB
0
Pitches
42
W-L
5-9
Season IP
100.2
Season K
101
ERA
3.75
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar HendersonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Adley RutschmanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Taylor WardBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Pete AlonsoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Samuel BasalloBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 6 | Tyler O'NeillBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Coby MayoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Jackson HollidayBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Leody TaverasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - |
Top 3: Baltimore Orioles leads 1-0. Kansas City Royals needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.320
Avg OPS
0.729
Pitching FIP
4.68
Pitching K%
20.48%
▸Power: Jac Caglianone 15HR
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Daniel Lynch IV 3.15
Avg wOBA
0.310
Avg OPS
0.704
Pitching FIP
4.25
Pitching K%
20.62%
▸Power: Gunnar Henderson 16HR
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Anthony Nunez 25.3%