Today's starting pitching matchup features Philadelphia Phillies's Cristopher Sánchez (13-4, 2.73 ERA) against Baltimore Orioles's Shane Baz (4-9, 3.98 ERA).

Philadelphia Phillies's Cristopher Sánchez posts an solid 2.73 ERA this season, while Shane Baz has been league-average at 3.98. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Cristopher Sánchez — FIP 2.65, K% 27.2%, 138.7 IP / Shane Baz — FIP 3.46, K% 20.3%, 122.0 IP

2026 season record: Philadelphia Phillies 57-53 (.518), Baltimore Orioles 54-56 (.491).

Recent form: Philadelphia Phillies on a 4-game losing streak, Baltimore Orioles on a 2-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Philadelphia Phillies holds the edge.

Philadelphia Phillies bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Nola 5.61 ERA, 116K in 114.0IP, Andrew Painter 6.72 ERA, 59K in 71.0IP, Chase Shugart 4.93 ERA, 43K in 34.2IP.

Baltimore Orioles bullpen: 12 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Albert Suárez 3.68 ERA, 32K in 44.0IP, Andrew Kittredge (Setup) 3.48 ERA, 28K in 31.0IP, Anthony Nunez (Setup) 4.30 ERA, 46K in 44.0IP.

Projected win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 53% vs Baltimore Orioles 47%

Factors: Philadelphia Phillies's starter owns the lower ERA, Baltimore Orioles's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Cristopher Sánchez averages 6.3 IP per start vs. Shane Baz at 5.8 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Cristopher Sánchez has allowed 12 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.