Today's starting pitching matchup features Philadelphia Phillies's Zack Wheeler (10-2, 2.53 ERA) against Baltimore Orioles's Kyle Bradish (7-9, 3.74 ERA).

Philadelphia Phillies's Zack Wheeler posts an solid 2.53 ERA this season, while Kyle Bradish has been league-average at 3.74. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Zack Wheeler — FIP 3.08, K% 31.1%, 103.0 IP / Kyle Bradish — FIP 3.86, K% 22.8%, 118.0 IP

2026 season record: Philadelphia Phillies 58-53 (.523), Baltimore Orioles 54-57 (.486).

Recent form: Philadelphia Phillies on a 1-game win streak, Baltimore Orioles on a 1-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Philadelphia Phillies holds the edge.

Philadelphia Phillies bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Nola 5.61 ERA, 116K in 114.0IP, Andrew Painter 6.72 ERA, 59K in 71.0IP, Chase Shugart 4.93 ERA, 43K in 34.2IP.

Baltimore Orioles bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Albert Suárez 3.68 ERA, 32K in 44.0IP, Andrew Kittredge (Setup) 4.02 ERA, 28K in 31.1IP, Anthony Nunez (Setup) 4.30 ERA, 46K in 44.0IP.

Projected win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 53% vs Baltimore Orioles 47%

Factors: Philadelphia Phillies's starter owns the lower ERA, Baltimore Orioles's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Zack Wheeler averages 6.1 IP per start vs. Kyle Bradish at 5.6 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Zack Wheeler has allowed 13 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.