Loading...
Boston Red Sox
46.1%
Baltimore Orioles
53.9%
StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Boston Red Sox
+117
Underdog
Baltimore Orioles
-117
Favorite
Over / Under
8.5
Total Runs Line
4.4 + 4 = 8.4
Expected: Boston Red Sox + Baltimore Orioles
Run Line (-1.5)
Boston Red Sox -1.5
Expected margin: -0.4 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Boston Red Sox Away Starter
W-L
5-4
Season IP
123.2
Season K
119
ERA
3.64
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
red-sox 0 - 0 orioles. A standard game between both teams.
Loading comments...
Baltimore Orioles Home Starter
W-L
5-14
Season IP
157.0
Season K
139
ERA
4.01
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Bot 0: Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 0-0.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.313
Avg OPS
0.712
Pitching FIP
3.27
Pitching K%
25.23%
▸Power: Ceddanne Rafaela 16HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Aroldis Chapman 2.63, Erik Miller 2.99, Alec Gamboa 3.14
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Aroldis Chapman 32%, Erik Miller 34.7%
Avg wOBA
0.308
Avg OPS
0.699
Pitching FIP
3.89
Pitching K%
19.88%
▸Power: Coby Mayo 19HR
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Alex Hoppe 2.89
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Alex Hoppe 25.5%