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Tampa Bay Rays
58.1%
Boston Red Sox
41.9%
StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Rays
-139
Favorite
Boston Red Sox
+139
Underdog
Over / Under
7.5
Total Runs Line
3.9 + 3.8 = 7.7
Expected: Tampa Bay Rays + Boston Red Sox
Run Line (-1.5)
Even -1.5
Expected margin: -0.1 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Fenway Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Tampa Bay Rays Away Starter
W-L
4-1
Season IP
47.2
Season K
31
ERA
1.70
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
rays 0 - 0 red-sox. A standard game between both teams.
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Boston Red Sox Home Starter
W-L
1-2
Season IP
22.2
Season K
27
ERA
2.78
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox finished deadlocked at 0-0. Neither side could land the decisive blow in a tightly contested affair.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.302
Avg OPS
0.680
Pitching FIP
2.97
Pitching K%
20.90%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Bryan Baker 2.32, Casey Legumina 3.1, Cole Sulser 3.49
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Bryan Baker 29.7%
Avg wOBA
0.275
Avg OPS
0.611
Pitching FIP
3.73
Pitching K%
25.28%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Aroldis Chapman 1.52, Garrett Whitlock 3.49
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Aroldis Chapman 34%, Garrett Whitlock 29.2%