Today's starting pitching matchup features Washington Nationals's Cade Cavalli (4-4, 4.00 ERA) against Boston Red Sox's Connelly Early (7-5, 3.59 ERA).

Both starters carry similar ERAs, setting the stage for a potential pitchers' duel. WHIP: Cade Cavalli 1.43, Connelly Early 1.25.

Advanced metrics: Cade Cavalli — FIP 3.53, K% 23.8%, 83.3 IP / Connelly Early — FIP 4.72, K% 23.5%, 87.7 IP

2026 season record: Washington Nationals 43-43 (.500), Boston Red Sox 37-46 (.446).

Washington Nationals holds the edge in the season standings, though Boston Red Sox can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Recent form: Washington Nationals on a 1-game losing streak, Boston Red Sox on a 5-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Boston Red Sox holds the edge.

Washington Nationals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Alvarez 3.44 ERA, 42K in 36.2IP, Brad Lord (Setup) 3.31 ERA, 51K in 54.1IP, Cade Cavalli 4.00 ERA, 89K in 83.1IP.

Boston Red Sox bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aroldis Chapman (Closer) 2.19 ERA, 32K in 24.2IP, Connelly Early 3.59 ERA, 88K in 87.2IP, Danny Coulombe (Setup) 4.26 ERA, 10K in 19.0IP.

Projected win probability: Washington Nationals 47% vs Boston Red Sox 53%

Factors: Boston Red Sox's starter owns the lower ERA, Boston Red Sox's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Cade Cavalli averages 4.9 IP per start vs. Connelly Early at 5.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Connelly Early has allowed 15 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.