Today's starting pitching matchup features Washington Nationals's Miles Mikolas (2-6, 5.24 ERA) against Boston Red Sox's Ranger Suarez (3-3, 2.83 ERA).

Boston Red Sox's Ranger Suarez posts an solid 2.83 ERA this season, while Miles Mikolas has been shaky at 5.24. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Miles Mikolas — FIP 5.31, K% 13.5%, 77.3 IP / Ranger Suarez — FIP 2.68, K% 24.9%, 82.7 IP

Miles Mikolas has allowed high batting averages to several Boston Red Sox hitters: Caleb Durbin (4/7, .571), Willson Contreras (7/19, .368). These matchups bear watching.

On the flip side, Jarren Duran has been overmatched by Miles Mikolas, going just 1-for-9 (.111) in their career matchup.

Miles Mikolas has a concerning .356 career BAA (16-for-45) vs. Boston Red Sox's top of the order — early damage is a real possibility.

Ranger Suarez has struggled against Washington Nationals's No. 6 hitter Jacob Young, allowing a .600 career average (3-for-5).

On the flip side, Luis García Jr. (1/8), CJ Abrams (0/9) have all been largely shut down by Ranger Suarez in their careers.

Ranger Suarez owns a .176 career batting average against (6-for-34) vs. Washington Nationals's top of the order — a strong sign for a quality outing.

2026 season record: Washington Nationals 43-42 (.506), Boston Red Sox 36-46 (.439).

Washington Nationals holds the edge in the season standings, though Boston Red Sox can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Recent form: Washington Nationals on a 2-game win streak, Boston Red Sox on a 4-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Boston Red Sox holds the edge.

Washington Nationals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Alvarez 3.44 ERA, 42K in 36.2IP, Brad Lord (Setup) 3.31 ERA, 51K in 54.1IP, Cade Cavalli 4.00 ERA, 89K in 83.1IP.

Boston Red Sox bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aroldis Chapman (Closer) 2.19 ERA, 32K in 24.2IP, Connelly Early 3.64 ERA, 79K in 81.2IP, Danny Coulombe (Setup) 4.50 ERA, 10K in 18.0IP.

Projected win probability: Washington Nationals 39% vs Boston Red Sox 61%

Factors: Boston Red Sox's starter owns the lower ERA, Boston Red Sox's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Miles Mikolas averages 12.9 IP per start vs. Ranger Suarez at 5.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Miles Mikolas has allowed 16 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.