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| Team | 1 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BOS | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Baltimore Orioles
34.6%
Boston Red Sox
65.4%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Fenway Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Baltimore Orioles Away Starter
W-L
4-9
Season IP
111.2
Season K
99
ERA
4.19
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor WardBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Pete AlonsoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Gunnar HendersonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Tyler O'NeillBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Coby MayoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Leody TaverasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Jeremiah JacksonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Sam HuffBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shane BazPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Payton TollePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
orioles 0 - 0 red-sox. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles
+189
Underdog
Boston Red Sox
-189
Favorite
Over / Under
8.5
Total Runs Line
4.1 + 4.4 = 8.5
Expected: Baltimore Orioles + Boston Red Sox
Run Line (-1.5)
Boston Red Sox -1.5
Expected margin: +0.3 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Boston Red Sox Home Starter
W-L
5-6
Season IP
84.0
Season K
87
ERA
3.11
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony SeiglerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Ceddanne RafaelaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Wilyer AbreuBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Willson ContrerasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Masataka YoshidaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Caleb DurbinBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Jarren DuranBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Connor WongBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Tsung-Che ChengBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - |
Top 1: Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 0-0.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.305
Avg OPS
0.690
Pitching FIP
4.21
Pitching K%
20.15%
▸Power: Gunnar Henderson 17HR
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
Avg wOBA
0.311
Avg OPS
0.704
Pitching FIP
3.46
Pitching K%
24.88%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Aroldis Chapman 2.51, Garrett Whitlock 2.56
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Aroldis Chapman 29.5%, Garrett Whitlock 28.4%, Eduardo Rivera 25%