Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Arizona Diamondbacks's Merrill Kelly (1-2, 9.20 ERA) against Chicago Cubs's Matthew Boyd (1-1, 7.00 ERA).
Chicago Cubs's Matthew Boyd posts an struggling 7.00 ERA this season, while Merrill Kelly has been struggling at 9.20. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Merrill Kelly — FIP 8.76, K% 12.2%, 14.7 IP / Matthew Boyd — FIP 1.77, K% 33.3%, 18.0 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Arizona Diamondbacks 16-16 (.500), Chicago Cubs 21-12 (.636).
Chicago Cubs holds the edge in the season standings, though Arizona Diamondbacks can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Recent form: Arizona Diamondbacks on a 3-game losing streak, Chicago Cubs on a 4-game win streak.
Based on starting pitching, Chicago Cubs holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brandon Pfaadt 5.67 ERA, 21 K in 27.0 IP, Eduardo Rodriguez 3.03 ERA, 22 K in 32.2 IP.
Chicago Cubs bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Ben Brown 1.82 ERA, 23 K in 24.2 IP, Colin Rea 4.41 ERA, 30 K in 32.2 IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 19% vs Chicago Cubs 81%
Factors: Chicago Cubs's starter owns the lower ERA, Chicago Cubs's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Merrill Kelly averages 4.9 IP per start vs. Matthew Boyd at 4.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.