Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Arizona Diamondbacks's Ryne Nelson (1-2, 7.71 ERA) against Chicago Cubs's Shota Imanaga (2-2, 2.88 ERA).
Chicago Cubs's Shota Imanaga posts an solid 2.88 ERA this season, while Ryne Nelson has been struggling at 7.71. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Ryne Nelson — FIP 5.55, K% 20.0%, 25.7 IP / Shota Imanaga — FIP 2.81, K% 28.6%, 34.3 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Arizona Diamondbacks 16-15 (.516), Chicago Cubs 20-12 (.625).
Chicago Cubs holds the edge in the season standings, though Arizona Diamondbacks can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Recent form: Arizona Diamondbacks on a 2-game losing streak, Chicago Cubs on a 3-game win streak.
Based on starting pitching, Chicago Cubs holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brandon Pfaadt 5.67 ERA, 21 K in 27.0 IP, Eduardo Rodriguez 3.03 ERA, 22 K in 32.2 IP.
Chicago Cubs bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Ben Brown 1.99 ERA, 22 K in 22.2 IP, Colin Rea 4.41 ERA, 30 K in 32.2 IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 23% vs Chicago Cubs 77%
Factors: Chicago Cubs's starter owns the lower ERA, Chicago Cubs's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Ryne Nelson averages 4.3 IP per start vs. Shota Imanaga at 5.7 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.