StatScope Analysis|Live GameLIVE
Houston Astros 1 - 0 Chicago Cubs (Top 3rd)
Live Game
Top 3: Houston Astros leads 1-0. Chicago Cubs needs to mount a rally.
Game in progress — data updates in real time.StatScope AI Engine
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Houston Astros
48.3%
Chicago Cubs
51.7%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Wrigley Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Houston Astros Away Starter
IP
2.0
K
3
ER
0
H
2
BB
1
Pitches
37
W-L
5-1
Season IP
38.0
Season K
38
ERA
1.42
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy PeñaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Isaac ParedesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Yordan AlvarezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Christian WalkerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Jake MeyersBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Braden ShewmakeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Cam SmithBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Zach ColeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Christian VázquezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spencer ArrighettiPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.0 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jameson TaillonPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.1 | 50 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
astros edged out a 1-0 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Houston Astros
+107
Underdog
Chicago Cubs
-107
Favorite
Over / Under
11
Total Runs Line
5.9 + 5.3 = 11.2
Expected: Houston Astros + Chicago Cubs
Run Line (-1.5)
Houston Astros -1.5
Expected margin: -0.6 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Chicago Cubs Home Starter
IP
2.1
K
4
ER
1
H
3
BB
0
Pitches
50
W-L
2-3
Season IP
52.2
Season K
45
ERA
4.78
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nico HoernerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Michael BuschBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Alex BregmanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Ian HappBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Seiya SuzukiBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Michael ConfortoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Carson KellyBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Dansby SwansonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Top 3: Houston Astros leads 1-0. Chicago Cubs needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.289
Avg OPS
0.647
Pitching FIP
5.41
Pitching K%
21.23%
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Bryan King 3.2
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Bryan Abreu 26.9%
Avg wOBA
0.342
Avg OPS
0.777
Pitching FIP
3.74
Pitching K%
24.43%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Ben Brown 2.38, Daniel Palencia 3.41
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Ben Brown 26%, Daniel Palencia 26.2%, Caleb Thielbar 26.2%