Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Milwaukee Brewers's Kyle Harrison (4-1, 2.09 ERA) against Chicago Cubs's Edward Cabrera (3-1, 4.06 ERA).
Milwaukee Brewers's Kyle Harrison posts an elite 2.09 ERA this season, while Edward Cabrera has been league-average at 4.06. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Kyle Harrison — FIP 2.87, K% 30.0%, 38.7 IP / Edward Cabrera — FIP 4.49, K% 21.3%, 51.0 IP
Career H2H Analysis
Edward Cabrera has struggled against Milwaukee Brewers's No. 3 hitter William Contreras, allowing a .300 career average (3-for-10).
On the flip side, Brice Turang (1/7), Christian Yelich (1/7) have all been largely shut down by Edward Cabrera in their careers.
Edward Cabrera carries a .222 career BAA (8-for-36) vs. Milwaukee Brewers's top of the order — a neutral track record.
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Milwaukee Brewers 28-18 (.609), Chicago Cubs 29-20 (.592).
Run differential: Milwaukee Brewers +70, Chicago Cubs +33. Milwaukee Brewers boasts superior run production.
Recent form: Milwaukee Brewers on a 2-game win streak, Chicago Cubs on a 4-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Milwaukee Brewers holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Ashby 2.73 ERA, 46K in 29.2IP, Abner Uribe (Closer) 4.42 ERA, 19K in 18.1IP, Brandon Sproat 5.75 ERA, 41K in 40.2IP.
Chicago Cubs bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Ben Brown 2.09 ERA, 40K in 38.2IP, Caleb Thielbar 2.79 ERA, 11K in 9.2IP, Colin Rea 4.98 ERA, 40K in 47.0IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Milwaukee Brewers 56% vs Chicago Cubs 44%
Factors: Milwaukee Brewers's starter owns the lower ERA, Chicago Cubs's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Kyle Harrison averages 4.8 IP per start vs. Edward Cabrera at 5.7 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.