San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features San Diego Padres's Griffin Canning (1-5, 7.38 ERA) against Chicago Cubs's Shota Imanaga (5-6, 4.40 ERA).
Chicago Cubs's Shota Imanaga posts an league-average 4.40 ERA this season, while Griffin Canning has been struggling at 7.38. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Griffin Canning — FIP 5.42, K% 22.5%, 42.7 IP / Shota Imanaga — FIP 4.86, K% 23.8%, 92.0 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: San Diego Padres 43-39 (.524), Chicago Cubs 46-38 (.548).
Recent form: San Diego Padres on a 2-game losing streak, Chicago Cubs on a 2-game win streak.
Based on starting pitching, Chicago Cubs holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
San Diego Padres bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Adrian Morejon (Setup) 3.43 ERA, 49K in 42.0IP, David Morgan 4.50 ERA, 26K in 22.0IP, Griffin Canning 7.38 ERA, 43K in 42.2IP.
Chicago Cubs bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Bryse Wilson 0.00 ERA, 4K in 6.1IP, Caleb Thielbar (Setup) 4.71 ERA, 25K in 21.0IP, Colin Rea 4.99 ERA, 59K in 79.1IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: San Diego Padres 30% vs Chicago Cubs 70%
Factors: Chicago Cubs's starter owns the lower ERA, Chicago Cubs's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Griffin Canning averages 5.3 IP per start vs. Shota Imanaga at 5.8 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Shota Imanaga has allowed 20 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.