New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features New York Yankees's Max Fried (4-3, 3.23 ERA) against Chicago Cubs's David Peterson (6-7, 5.80 ERA).
New York Yankees's Max Fried posts an solid 3.23 ERA this season, while David Peterson has been struggling at 5.80. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Max Fried — FIP 2.57, K% 22.5%, 69.7 IP / David Peterson — FIP 4.21, K% 18.0%, 94.7 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: New York Yankees 62-48 (.564), Chicago Cubs 62-48 (.564).
Run differential: New York Yankees +89, Chicago Cubs +87. New York Yankees boasts superior run production.
Recent form: New York Yankees on a 1-game win streak, Chicago Cubs on a 1-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, New York Yankees holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
New York Yankees bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Angel Chivilli 0.60 ERA, 16K in 15.0IP, Brent Headrick (Setup) 1.30 ERA, 65K in 55.1IP, Cam Schlittler 2.04 ERA, 165K in 136.2IP.
Chicago Cubs bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Civale 5.31 ERA, 64K in 79.2IP, Caleb Thielbar (Setup) 4.09 ERA, 43K in 33.0IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: New York Yankees 60% vs Chicago Cubs 40%
Factors: New York Yankees's starter owns the lower ERA, Chicago Cubs's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Max Fried averages 5.8 IP per start vs. David Peterson at 7.3 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
David Peterson has allowed 10 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.