New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features New York Yankees's Gerrit Cole (4-5, 3.57 ERA) against Chicago Cubs's Colin Rea (8-7, 4.67 ERA).
New York Yankees's Gerrit Cole posts an league-average 3.57 ERA this season, while Colin Rea has been shaky at 4.67. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Gerrit Cole — FIP 3.72, K% 26.2%, 68.0 IP / Colin Rea — FIP 4.86, K% 17.1%, 111.7 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: New York Yankees 62-49 (.559), Chicago Cubs 63-48 (.568).
Run differential: New York Yankees +86, Chicago Cubs +90. Chicago Cubs boasts superior run production.
Recent form: New York Yankees on a 1-game losing streak, Chicago Cubs on a 1-game win streak.
Based on starting pitching, New York Yankees holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
New York Yankees bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Angel Chivilli 0.60 ERA, 16K in 15.0IP, Brent Headrick (Setup) 1.30 ERA, 65K in 55.1IP, Cam Schlittler 2.04 ERA, 165K in 136.2IP.
Chicago Cubs bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Civale 5.31 ERA, 64K in 79.2IP, Caleb Thielbar (Setup) 4.09 ERA, 43K in 33.0IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: New York Yankees 53% vs Chicago Cubs 47%
Factors: New York Yankees's starter owns the lower ERA, Chicago Cubs's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Gerrit Cole averages 5.7 IP per start vs. Colin Rea at 6.2 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Colin Rea has allowed 17 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.