Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Milwaukee Brewers's Logan Henderson (9-2, 2.48 ERA) against Chicago Cubs's Kevin Gausman (8-11, 4.52 ERA).
Milwaukee Brewers's Logan Henderson posts an elite 2.48 ERA this season, while Kevin Gausman has been shaky at 4.52. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Logan Henderson — FIP 3.31, K% 30.1%, 76.3 IP / Kevin Gausman — FIP 3.62, K% 23.8%, 155.3 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Milwaukee Brewers 87-53 (.621), Chicago Cubs 78-62 (.557).
Milwaukee Brewers holds the edge in the season standings, though Chicago Cubs can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Run differential: Milwaukee Brewers +172, Chicago Cubs +132. Milwaukee Brewers boasts superior run production.
Recent form: Milwaukee Brewers on a 2-game win streak, Chicago Cubs on a 2-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Milwaukee Brewers holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Ashby (Setup) 3.20 ERA, 105K in 76.0IP, Abner Uribe (Closer) 2.01 ERA, 50K in 49.1IP, Antonio Senzatela (Setup) 3.80 ERA, 54K in 64.0IP.
Chicago Cubs bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Civale 4.50 ERA, 80K in 98.0IP, Caleb Thielbar (Setup) 5.10 ERA, 51K in 42.1IP, Clay Holmes 2.09 ERA, 63K in 81.2IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Milwaukee Brewers 56% vs Chicago Cubs 44%
Factors: Milwaukee Brewers's starter owns the lower ERA, Chicago Cubs's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Logan Henderson averages 5.5 IP per start vs. Kevin Gausman at 5.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Kevin Gausman has allowed 20 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.