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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| CWS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Kansas City Royals
38.1%
Chicago White Sox
61.9%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Rate Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Kansas City Royals Away Starter
W-L
5-5
Season IP
108.2
Season K
84
ERA
3.31
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
white-sox edged out a 2-1 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Kansas City Royals
+162
Underdog
Chicago White Sox
-162
Favorite
Over / Under
9
Total Runs Line
3.9 + 5.3 = 9.2
Expected: Kansas City Royals + Chicago White Sox
Run Line (-1.5)
Chicago White Sox -1.5
Expected margin: +1.4 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Chicago White Sox Home Starter
W-L
9-3
Season IP
93.0
Season K
90
ERA
3.00
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Chicago White Sox squeaked out a narrow win over Kansas City Royals, 2-1. Tension ran high from start to finish in this one-run thriller.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.358
Avg OPS
0.829
Pitching FIP
4.11
Pitching K%
21.40%
▸wOBA .350+: 3 players — elite offense
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Daniel Lynch IV 3.25
Avg wOBA
0.306
Avg OPS
0.695
Pitching FIP
3.99
Pitching K%
22.40%
▸Power: Colson Montgomery 20HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Bryan Hudson 3.1
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Brandon Eisert 27.5%