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St. Louis Cardinals
46.7%
Cincinnati Reds
53.3%
StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
+114
Underdog
Cincinnati Reds
-114
Favorite
Over / Under
11.5
Total Runs Line
5.7 + 5.6 = 11.3
Expected: St. Louis Cardinals + Cincinnati Reds
Run Line (-1.5)
Even -1.5
Expected margin: -0.1 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Great American Ball Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
St. Louis Cardinals Away Starter
W-L
5-3
Season IP
45.2
Season K
34
ERA
3.94
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
cardinals 0 - 0 reds. A standard game between both teams.
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Cincinnati Reds Home Starter
W-L
0-5
Season IP
35.2
Season K
30
ERA
7.07
Season Record
No lineup information available.
St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds finished deadlocked at 0-0. Neither side could land the decisive blow in a tightly contested affair.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.291
Avg OPS
0.668
Pitching FIP
4.46
Pitching K%
16.90%
▸wOBA .350+: 3 players — elite offense
Avg wOBA
0.346
Avg OPS
0.794
Pitching FIP
4.68
Pitching K%
20.95%
▸wOBA .350+: 3 players — elite offense
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Chase Burns 3.39
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Chase Burns 28.2%