StatScope Analysis|Live GameLIVE
New York Mets 7 - 1 Cincinnati Reds (Bot 7th)
Live Game
Bot 7: New York Mets leads 7-1. Cincinnati Reds needs to mount a rally.
Game in progress — data updates in real time.StatScope AI Engine
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 1 | 2 | 1 |
New York Mets
52%
Cincinnati Reds
48%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Great American Ball Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
New York Mets Away Starter
IP
6.1
K
7
ER
0
H
2
BB
1
Pitches
93
W-L
3-4
Season IP
82.1
Season K
94
ERA
3.72
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carson BengeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 4 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Bo BichetteBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 3 | 2 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Juan SotoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 4 | 2 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 4 | Marcus SemienBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 3 | 2 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Mark VientosBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 3 | 1 | - | 2 | |||||||
| 6 | Francisco AlvarezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 4 | 3 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 7 | A.J. EwingBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 3 | 1 | - | 2 | |||||||
| 8 | Luis TorrensBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 4 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Zack ShortBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nolan McLeanPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 6.1 | 93 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nick LodoloPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 4.2 | 90 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - | |||||||
Chris PaddackPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.1 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
mets crushed reds 7-1. A 6-run blowout.
Francisco Alvarez (mets) went 3-for-4 with 1 RBI.
Nolan McLean pitched 6.1 IP on 93 pitches, 7 K, 0 ER — a quality start.
mets scored 4 runs in the top of the 5th, seizing momentum.
mets (12 H) significantly out-hit reds (2 H).
1 relievers used, 2.1 IP total, 0 runs allowed.
reds bullpen ERA: 0.00 (2.3 IP)
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
New York Mets
-108
Favorite
Cincinnati Reds
+108
Underdog
Over / Under
10
Total Runs Line
5.8 + 4.3 = 10.1
Expected: New York Mets + Cincinnati Reds
Run Line (-1.5)
New York Mets -1.5
Expected margin: -1.5 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds Home Starter
IP
4.2
K
2
ER
7
H
11
BB
2
Pitches
90
W-L
2-1
Season IP
42.2
Season K
32
ERA
6.12
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edwin ArroyoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | JJ BledayBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 3 | Sal StewartBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Nathaniel LoweBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 3 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Eugenio SuárezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Spencer SteerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Noelvi MarteBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Jose TrevinoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Matt McLainBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 1 | - | - |
Chris Paddack (reds) — 2.1 IP, 0 runs, 1 K. The most reliable arm out of the bullpen.
Chris Paddack (reds) entered with 1 runner on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
Bot 7: New York Mets leads 7-1. Cincinnati Reds needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.326
Avg OPS
0.739
Pitching FIP
3.50
Pitching K%
23.90%
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: A.J. Minter 1.6, Brooks Raley 3.33
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): A.J. Minter 25.9%, Brooks Raley 27.7%, Austin Warren 25.2%
Avg wOBA
0.289
Avg OPS
0.654
Pitching FIP
4.45
Pitching K%
20.07%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Caleb Ferguson 2.35
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Caleb Ferguson 26.2%