Today's starting pitching matchup features Cleveland Guardians's Slade Cecconi (4-7, 4.60 ERA) against Cincinnati Reds's Chase Burns (12-1, 2.42 ERA).

Cincinnati Reds's Chase Burns posts an elite 2.42 ERA this season, while Slade Cecconi has been shaky at 4.60. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Slade Cecconi — FIP 4.47, K% 18.0%, 103.7 IP / Chase Burns — FIP 3.33, K% 28.6%, 107.7 IP

2026 season record: Cleveland Guardians 54-53 (.505), Cincinnati Reds 49-55 (.471).

Run differential: Cleveland Guardians -18, Cincinnati Reds -66. Both clubs are evenly matched in run production.

Recent form: Cleveland Guardians on a 5-game losing streak, Cincinnati Reds on a 1-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Cincinnati Reds holds the edge.

Cleveland Guardians bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Cade Smith (Closer) 2.63 ERA, 67K in 48.0IP, Colin Holderman (Setup) 1.80 ERA, 40K in 40.0IP, Erik Sabrowski (Setup) 3.56 ERA, 50K in 30.1IP.

Cincinnati Reds bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Abbott 3.85 ERA, 94K in 117.0IP, Brady Singer 4.53 ERA, 88K in 103.1IP, Brock Burke (Setup) 2.66 ERA, 43K in 50.2IP.

Projected win probability: Cleveland Guardians 40% vs Cincinnati Reds 60%

Factors: Cincinnati Reds's starter owns the lower ERA, Cincinnati Reds's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Slade Cecconi averages 5.2 IP per start vs. Chase Burns at 5.7 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Slade Cecconi has allowed 15 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.