Today's starting pitching matchup features Pittsburgh Pirates's Braxton Ashcraft (10-4, 4.05 ERA) against Cincinnati Reds's Andrew Abbott (5-6, 3.85 ERA).

Both starters carry similar ERAs, setting the stage for a potential pitchers' duel. WHIP: Braxton Ashcraft 1.19, Andrew Abbott 1.38.

Advanced metrics: Braxton Ashcraft — FIP 3.48, K% 26.6%, 122.3 IP / Andrew Abbott — FIP 4.77, K% 18.6%, 117.0 IP

2026 season record: Pittsburgh Pirates 55-56 (.495), Cincinnati Reds 52-57 (.477).

Run differential: Pittsburgh Pirates +35, Cincinnati Reds -68. Both clubs are evenly matched in run production.

Recent form: Pittsburgh Pirates on a 4-game losing streak, Cincinnati Reds on a 2-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Cincinnati Reds holds the edge.

Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Antwone Kelly 6.14 ERA, 4K in 7.1IP, Braxton Ashcraft 4.05 ERA, 135K in 122.1IP, Bubba Chandler 4.56 ERA, 93K in 104.2IP.

Cincinnati Reds bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Abbott 3.85 ERA, 94K in 117.0IP, Brady Singer 4.35 ERA, 91K in 107.2IP, Brock Burke (Setup) 2.56 ERA, 45K in 52.2IP.

Projected win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 48% vs Cincinnati Reds 52%

Factors: Cincinnati Reds's starter owns the lower ERA, Cincinnati Reds's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Braxton Ashcraft averages 5.8 IP per start vs. Andrew Abbott at 5.3 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Andrew Abbott has allowed 17 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.