Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Pittsburgh Pirates's Mitch Keller (6-7, 4.83 ERA) against Cincinnati Reds's Chase Burns (12-1, 2.40 ERA).
Cincinnati Reds's Chase Burns posts an elite 2.40 ERA this season, while Mitch Keller has been shaky at 4.83. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Mitch Keller — FIP 4.27, K% 17.9%, 113.7 IP / Chase Burns — FIP 3.42, K% 28.1%, 112.7 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Pittsburgh Pirates 56-56 (.500), Cincinnati Reds 52-58 (.473).
Run differential: Pittsburgh Pirates +38, Cincinnati Reds -71. Both clubs are evenly matched in run production.
Recent form: Pittsburgh Pirates on a 1-game win streak, Cincinnati Reds on a 1-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Cincinnati Reds holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Braxton Ashcraft 3.98 ERA, 137K in 124.1IP, Bubba Chandler 4.56 ERA, 93K in 104.2IP, Carmen Mlodzinski 3.15 ERA, 76K in 94.1IP.
Cincinnati Reds bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Abbott 3.78 ERA, 94K in 119.0IP, Brady Singer 4.35 ERA, 91K in 107.2IP, Brock Burke (Setup) 2.56 ERA, 45K in 52.2IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 39% vs Cincinnati Reds 61%
Factors: Cincinnati Reds's starter owns the lower ERA, Cincinnati Reds's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Mitch Keller averages 5.4 IP per start vs. Chase Burns at 5.6 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Mitch Keller has allowed 13 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.