StatScope Analysis|Live GameLIVE
San Diego Padres 3 - 7 Cincinnati Reds (Top 9th)
Live Game
Top 9: Cincinnati Reds leads 7-3. San Diego Padres needs to mount a rally.
Game in progress — data updates in real time.StatScope AI Engine
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - | 7 | 10 | 0 |
San Diego Padres
50.9%
Cincinnati Reds
49.1%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Great American Ball Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
San Diego Padres Away Starter
IP
4.0
K
4
ER
4
H
5
BB
1
Pitches
85
W-L
5-8
Season IP
113.2
Season K
100
ERA
3.64
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 4 | 2 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Samad TaylorBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Jackson MerrillBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 4 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Ty FranceBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| 5 | Xander BogaertsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 3 | 2 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Ethan SalasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 4 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Dustin HarrisBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Luis CampusanoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Jake CronenworthBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Casey MizePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 4.0 | 85 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | - | |||||||
Wandy PeraltaPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.1 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | |||||||
David MorganPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 0.1 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | |||||||
Kyle HartPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 0.2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |||||||
Jhony BritoPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.2 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brandon WilliamsonPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 5.1 | 87 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | - | |||||||
Pierce JohnsonPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 0.2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | |||||||
Tejay AntonePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - | |||||||
Tony SantillanPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | |||||||
Emilio PagánPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
JJ Bleday (reds) went 3-for-4 (incl. 1 HR) with 2 RBI.
Casey Mize averaged 21.3 pitches per inning — high workload.
reds scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 2nd, seizing momentum.
4 relievers used, 2.2 IP total, 0 runs allowed.
4 relievers used, 3.3 IP total, 3 runs allowed.
reds bullpen ERA 0.00 vs padres bullpen ERA 6.75. reds bullpen was more efficient.
Tejay Antone (reds) — 1.0 IP, 0 runs, 2 K. The most reliable arm out of the bullpen.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
San Diego Padres
-104
Favorite
Cincinnati Reds
+104
Underdog
Over / Under
10.5
Total Runs Line
6.2 + 4.3 = 10.5
Expected: San Diego Padres + Cincinnati Reds
Run Line (-1.5)
San Diego Padres -1.5
Expected margin: -1.9 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds Home Starter
IP
5.1
K
5
ER
3
H
7
BB
2
Pitches
87
W-L
2-3
Season IP
33.1
Season K
24
ERA
5.94
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TJ FriedlBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Elly De La CruzBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 4 | 2 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Sal StewartBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 4 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | JJ BledayBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| 5 | Tyler StephensonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Dane MyersBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 4 | 3 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Juan BritoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||||
| 8 | Matt McLainBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 3 | 0 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 9 | Edwin ArroyoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 4 | 0 | - | - |
Pierce Johnson(0.2 IP, scoreless) → Tejay Antone(1.0 IP, scoreless) → Tony Santillan(1.0 IP, scoreless) → Emilio Pagán(0.0 IP, scoreless)
Pierce Johnson (reds) entered with 2 runners on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
David Morgan (padres) entered with 1 runner on base, allowed 1 to score. Let 1 inherited runner come around to score.
Kyle Hart (padres) entered with 2 runners on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
Jhony Brito (padres) entered with 1 runner on base, allowed 1 to score. Let 1 inherited runner come around to score.
Top 9: Cincinnati Reds leads 7-3. San Diego Padres needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.299
Avg OPS
0.681
Pitching FIP
3.20
Pitching K%
25.13%
▸Power: Fernando Tatis Jr. 19HR, Jackson Merrill 22HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Bradgley Rodriguez 2.44, Adrian Morejon 2.51
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Bradgley Rodriguez 26.1%, Adrian Morejon 29.3%
Avg wOBA
0.290
Avg OPS
0.646
Pitching FIP
4.92
Pitching K%
19.02%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Elly De La Cruz 21HR, Eugenio Suárez 20HR
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players