Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Milwaukee Brewers's Dustin May (6-9, 4.69 ERA) against Cincinnati Reds's Andrew Abbott (6-10, 4.49 ERA).
Both starters carry similar ERAs, setting the stage for a potential pitchers' duel. WHIP: Dustin May 1.32, Andrew Abbott 1.44.
Advanced metrics: Dustin May — FIP 3.50, K% 22.3%, 128.7 IP / Andrew Abbott — FIP 4.81, K% 17.7%, 148.3 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Milwaukee Brewers 88-54 (.620), Cincinnati Reds 67-74 (.475).
Milwaukee Brewers holds the edge in the season standings, though Cincinnati Reds can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Run differential: Milwaukee Brewers +174, Cincinnati Reds -111. Milwaukee Brewers boasts superior run production.
Recent form: Milwaukee Brewers on a 1-game win streak, Cincinnati Reds on a 1-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Cincinnati Reds holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Ashby (Setup) 3.16 ERA, 105K in 77.0IP, Abner Uribe (Closer) 1.97 ERA, 51K in 50.1IP, Antonio Senzatela (Setup) 3.82 ERA, 54K in 66.0IP.
Cincinnati Reds bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Abbott 4.49 ERA, 115K in 148.1IP, Brady Singer 4.83 ERA, 117K in 141.2IP, Brandon Williamson 5.94 ERA, 24K in 33.1IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Milwaukee Brewers 47% vs Cincinnati Reds 53%
Factors: Cincinnati Reds's starter owns the lower ERA, Cincinnati Reds's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Dustin May averages 4.9 IP per start vs. Andrew Abbott at 5.3 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Andrew Abbott has allowed 21 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.