Today's starting pitching matchup features Cincinnati Reds's Brady Singer (2-3, 5.79 ERA) against Cleveland Guardians's Gavin Williams (5-3, 3.74 ERA).

Cleveland Guardians's Gavin Williams posts an league-average 3.74 ERA this season, while Brady Singer has been struggling at 5.79. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Brady Singer — FIP 6.17, K% 14.3%, 42.0 IP / Gavin Williams — FIP 3.84, K% 29.3%, 55.3 IP

2026 season record: Cincinnati Reds 24-22 (.522), Cleveland Guardians 25-22 (.532).

Recent form: Cincinnati Reds on a 1-game losing streak, Cleveland Guardians on a 1-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Cleveland Guardians holds the edge.

Cincinnati Reds bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Abbott 4.21 ERA, 35K in 51.1IP, Brady Singer 5.79 ERA, 28K in 42.0IP, Brock Burke 2.61 ERA, 24K in 20.2IP.

Cleveland Guardians bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Cade Smith (Closer) 2.91 ERA, 31K in 21.2IP, Colin Holderman 1.65 ERA, 18K in 16.1IP.

Projected win probability: Cincinnati Reds 39% vs Cleveland Guardians 61%

Factors: Cleveland Guardians's starter owns the lower ERA, Cleveland Guardians's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Brady Singer averages 4.7 IP per start vs. Gavin Williams at 6.1 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Brady Singer has allowed 11 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.