Today's starting pitching matchup features Washington Nationals's Miles Mikolas (1-3, 6.17 ERA) against Cleveland Guardians's Gavin Williams (7-3, 3.25 ERA).

Cleveland Guardians's Gavin Williams posts an solid 3.25 ERA this season, while Miles Mikolas has been struggling at 6.17. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Miles Mikolas — FIP 5.74, K% 15.3%, 46.7 IP / Gavin Williams — FIP 3.36, K% 30.3%, 69.3 IP

2026 season record: Washington Nationals 29-27 (.518), Cleveland Guardians 32-25 (.561).

Recent form: Washington Nationals on a 4-game win streak, Cleveland Guardians on a 2-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Cleveland Guardians holds the edge.

Washington Nationals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Alvarez 2.84 ERA, 16K in 12.2IP, Brad Lord (Setup) 2.83 ERA, 29K in 35.0IP, Cade Cavalli 3.62 ERA, 68K in 59.2IP.

Cleveland Guardians bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Cade Smith (Closer) 2.45 ERA, 37K in 25.2IP, Colin Holderman 1.40 ERA, 22K in 19.1IP.

Projected win probability: Washington Nationals 35% vs Cleveland Guardians 65%

Factors: Cleveland Guardians's starter owns the lower ERA, Cleveland Guardians's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Miles Mikolas averages 7.8 IP per start vs. Gavin Williams at 6.3 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Miles Mikolas has allowed 11 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.