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Detroit Tigers
52.9%
Cleveland Guardians
47.1%
StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
-112
Favorite
Cleveland Guardians
+112
Underdog
Over / Under
7
Total Runs Line
3.7 + 3.1 = 6.8
Expected: Detroit Tigers + Cleveland Guardians
Run Line (-1.5)
Detroit Tigers -1.5
Expected margin: -0.6 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Progressive Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Detroit Tigers Away Starter
W-L
2-3
Season IP
48.2
Season K
50
ERA
2.22
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
tigers 0 - 0 guardians. A standard game between both teams.
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Cleveland Guardians Home Starter
W-L
9-3
Season IP
86.2
Season K
99
ERA
3.32
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians finished deadlocked at 0-0. Neither side could land the decisive blow in a tightly contested affair.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.270
Avg OPS
0.608
Pitching FIP
2.91
Pitching K%
27.75%
▸Power: Dillon Dingler 16HR
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Casey Mize 2.38, Drew Sommers 2.7, Enmanuel De Jesus 2.99
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Casey Mize 26.6%, Drew Sommers 33.3%, Drew Anderson 29.3%
Avg wOBA
0.317
Avg OPS
0.715
Pitching FIP
2.43
Pitching K%
32.13%
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Cade Smith 1.05, Colin Holderman 2.45
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Cade Smith 38%, Colin Holderman 29.7%, Gavin Williams 28.7%