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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | 6 | 12 | 2 |
Seattle Mariners
44.4%
Cleveland Guardians
55.6%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Progressive Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Seattle Mariners Away Starter
W-L
5-4
Season IP
90.2
Season K
87
ERA
3.47
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
guardians edged out a 6-5 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
guardians scored 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th, seizing momentum.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Seattle Mariners
+125
Underdog
Cleveland Guardians
-125
Favorite
Over / Under
7.5
Total Runs Line
3.7 + 3.7 = 7.4
Expected: Seattle Mariners + Cleveland Guardians
Run Line (-1.5)
Even -1.5
Expected margin: 0 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Cleveland Guardians Home Starter
W-L
9-4
Season IP
97.2
Season K
113
ERA
3.78
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Cleveland Guardians squeaked out a narrow win over Seattle Mariners, 6-5. Tension ran high from start to finish in this one-run thriller.
The turning point came in the bottom of the 8th. Cleveland Guardians pushed across 5 runs to seize control of the game.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.316
Avg OPS
0.715
Pitching FIP
3.08
Pitching K%
28.98%
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Eduard Bazardo 3.02, Bryan Woo 3.06, Bryce Miller 3.06, Andrés Muñoz 3.17
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Bryce Miller 33.1%, Andrés Muñoz 35.7%
Avg wOBA
0.307
Avg OPS
0.671
Pitching FIP
2.14
Pitching K%
37.10%
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Erik Sabrowski 1.8, Cade Smith 2, Colin Holderman 2.62
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Erik Sabrowski 46.2%, Cade Smith 35.6%, Colin Holderman 29.5%